October 23, 2008 9:21 AM
(By Pat Young) New polls show John McCain not only running prohibitively behind Barak Obama among Latinos, but even far behind George Bush four years ago.
A decade ago it was common to speak of the "Black and Hispanic Vote" as though the two were the same. However, while African Americans have been solidly Democratic for the last four decades, Latinos have been only marginally Democratic voters. For example, in the tightly fought 2004 election 44% of Latinos voted for George Bush. Republicans have typically captured a third to almost half of the Latino vote in state and federal elections in which there is no Latino contender.
Since Latinos have made up 7-8 percent of the total electorate in recent national elections, that means that the Latino vote, as a proportion of the total, typicall splits as 4% for the Democrats and 3% for the Republicans, a 1% net for the Democrats.
McCain is now polling at only 26% among Latinos. With Latino immigrants applying for citizenship in huge numbers and the Latino portions of the electorate expected to be at a record 9%, this could translate into a net advantage in the total popular vote of 6-7%, a genuinely significant figure.
As I reported earlier this week, even Latino evangelicals, once solidly Republican, are reconsidering their support for the GOP.
This site will have complete analysis on the Latino and Asian-American vote the morning after the election.
Stay tuned.