November 13, 2009 7:08 PM
After October 15 came and went, I stopped making predictions about when the long-awaited immigration reform bill would first appear in Congress. Two prior attempts to prognosticate had gone stale as Congress became wrapped up in the never-ending healthcare debate. But now, I think I can lay out enough of what is going to happen to at least make for an interesting read.
Today, Janet Napolitano took the first step. She certified that measures are in place to create a reasonably secure enforcement regime. She said that was a necassary precondition for Congress taking up immigration reform.
On the 18th of this month, Congressman Gutierrez will lay out the framework of his reform proposal on a national conference call. Now this will not be the date of introduction of the bill, which will likely take place a couple of weeks later, nor is this bill likely to be the one ultimately voted on. But it will set down markers for liberal Dems on what they want in the bill.
Meanwhile, Schumer is still drafting the Senate reform bill. This bill will not be introduced until after the new year. The Dems are short a few votes in the Senate, with 3 to 6 Democratic senators likely to vote against reform. This means that any bill introduced will have to have some Republican support to pass. So Schumer is drafting the bill with Lindsay Graham. You may not like that, but get used to it if you want to seen reform pass next year.
Gutierrez has said that the bill must be passed by early spring. Later than that and it is likely to be defeated as Dems scramble to hold onto seats placed in jeopardy by a sinking economy.
The other option is to wait until 2011 for a bill, but then immigration reform gets mixed into presidential politics and the pro-immigrant forces may emerge weaker from the November 2010 elections. Delay would be a huge gamble.
Here is video of Napolitano's remarks this morning: