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How Many People on Long Island Could Gain Citizenship Under the DREAM Act?

Posted November 29, 2010 by Patrick Young, Esq.
Categories: Federal Immigration Policy

The DREAM Act is likely to be voted on during the ongoing lame duck session of Congress, with a vote in the House possible later this week.

The question I’ve been asked a lot lately is just how many Long Islanders will get legal status from the passage of the DREAM Act, a piece of legislation that will create a path to citizenship for young undocumented immigrants who attend college or serve in the military.

This is my estimate: Out of the approximately 100,000-125,000 undocumented immigrants on Long Island, less than 10 percent would get permanent residence under the DREAM Act, although a higher percentage would get the initial temporary “conditional residence” status.

Here’s how I arrived at this number:

The Migration Policy Institute did an analysis in July of the number of young people nationally who were likely to legalize under the DREAM Act. They found that while 2.1 million undocumented immigrants were likely to be eligible for the temporary status offered to DREAM applicants, only about 825,000 would eventually receive permanent residence under the law. This is because the DREAM Act is a two-part process.

To begin with, it requires that an applicant brought to the US before the age of 16 complete high school and have no serious criminal record in order to apply for temporary “conditional residence.” To apply for permanent resident, the applicant then needs to complete two years of college or military service within six years. The Migration Policy Institute estimates that 62 percent of those eligible will not be able to meet the college or military service requirements for a green card.

If these ratios hold true for Long Island Dreamers, we could expect 20,000 or more young people to receive temporary status, but only 8,000 to 10,000 to obtain permanent residence.

While the DREAM Act is no solution for the tens of thousands of undocumented immigrants living here, it will provide a way out of the shadows for the sort of highly motivated and well educated young people that Long Island needs to propel our region forward.