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Immigration Reform This Year? Ever?

Posted August 30, 2010 by Patrick Young, Esq.
Categories: Federal Immigration Policy

This is the first in a series looking at the possibilities for immigration reform: comprehensive, piecemeal, and administrative.

Several months ago I wrote that comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) was essentially dead in 2010. I suggested that the time had come to push for passable parts of the reform agenda like the DREAM Act. I told you that thinking by leaders in the immigrant rights movement was heading in this direction.

You have the right to wonder what the current state of play of any immigration reform is.

But first, let’s take a brief look backwards.

While the chances for reform diminished significantly after Ted Kennedy’s seat went to the Republicans back in January, we were buoyed by the turnout of nearly 200,000 immigrant rights supporters at the massive rally for reform in March, and by statements from the Senate leadership that a bill was likely to be put forward by Memorial Day.

When that didn’t happen, immigrant leaders began scrambling to reassess the strategy for moving forward. Many adopted my view that the time for CIR’s introduction had passed and that we needed to move on to a less ambitious legislative program.

Frankly, while we have helped more immigrants become citizens and voters in the last decade than ever before, we have not passed a single piece of pro-immigrant legislation since 2000. CIR was only passable while the Democrats held the Senate and while some Republicans were willing to cross the aisle. That has not been the case since January.

So why hasn’t the immigrant rights movement unified behind a lesser program?

There are several reasons.

First, some leaders believe that CIR is still passable this year. They theorize that after the November elections, Congress will return for a lame duck session and pass immigration reform. They point out that members without their seats on the line are much more likely to support a controversial bill.

The problem is that the United States is in two wars, has a huge budget problem, is in the worst recession in twenty years, and is still trying to figure out how to clean up the BP oil mess. In other words, in a country with five crises, everything is controversial right now. The odds that the two- or three-week lame duck session will take up a complicated matter like CIR, when there isn’t even a Senate bill out there yet to discuss, are slim.

And slim just left town.

Second, many leaders say that immigration reform is best taken up in 2011. That is not an election year, and a bipartisan bill would be more easily crafted in that calmer environment.

True, if we assume that Congress next year doesn’t change. But Congress will change in two ways.

The Democrats may not lose majorities in the two houses, but they will lose seats. They will be weaker. Which would not be a problem if they were replaced by Republicans who were immigration moderates. But they won’t be.

Before 2007, we could count on 20 percent of Republicans in Congress siding with immigrants. Now we can’t find a friend of CIR among them. At all.

Those who were formerly our allies have been tea-partied to death and are running scared.

So don’t expect the new Congress to be friendlier to immigration reform.

The third reason many leaders don’t want to begin separating the elements of comprehensive immigration reform is because they know that we will have to trade away some immigrant interests in order to get some lesser measure like the DREAM Act.

As the Democrat-sponsored $600 million border initiative passed last month demonstrates, Congress can do bad things on immigration without giving us anything. Our equities are already being traded away without any reform at all.

Fourthly, some immigrant rights leaders believe that any compromise at this time will let the president off the hook. We’ll get relief for 5 percent of the undocumented and the pressure to pass CIR will die.

I’ll let you answer that argument for yourself.

Tags : immigration movement, immigration reform, politics

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