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More Evidence That Undocumented Population In U.S. Reduced

Posted March 16, 2010 by Patrick Young, Esq.
Categories: Federal Immigration Policy

Muz Chisti and Claire Bergeron of the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) have looked closely at the newest data on the decreasing undocumented immigrant population. Recent data from various sources, including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), suggest that the undocumented population has fallen by half-a-million to a million over the last two years. According to MPI:

The DHS report indicates that the drop in unauthorized immigrants was particularly pronounced in certain states. California and Florida experienced the greatest absolute decreases between 2007 and 2009, as each state lost more than 200,000 unauthorized immigrants. In California, this represented an 8 percent drop and in Florida a 25 percent drop. In Arizona, the unauthorized population fell by 13 percent, but in absolute terms this was less than 75,000 people.

Although the number of unauthorized immigrants residing in Texas, Georgia, and Illinois also decreased, the drops represented a decrease of just a few percent � probably within the margin of error of the estimates.

In terms of country of origin, the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants dropped by only about 5 percent (or about 300,000). DHS estimates that the number of unauthorized Chinese immigrants fell by about half and the number from Brazil by about a fifth. In contrast, there was a marked increase in the number of unauthorized immigrants from Honduras and Ecuador.

Several factors are linked to the decline. The most important is the recession:

Most experts agree that the decline in the number of unauthorized immigrants is closely linked to the US recession. Studies have found that historically, recessions affect unauthorized workers disproportionately, as they are more likely to work in industries that are sensitive to business cycles, such as construction, manufacturing, and hospitality. In addition, unauthorized immigrants tend to have less secure contractual arrangements with their employers than do native-born and lawful-immigrant workers.

The current recession has hit unauthorized immigrants especially hard because of job losses in the construction industry, the sector of the economy the recession weakened most. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, the industry shed 700,000 jobs between the first quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2008. Pew found that 21 percent of unauthorized immigrant workers were employed in the construction industry in 2008. California, Florida, and Arizona have been particularly hurt by the recession, and these three states have had relatively high foreclosure rates and housing price declines � factors that affect the demand for immigrant labor in construction.

The recession has not sparked expanded return migration to Mexico, but has substantially discouraged new illegal immigration from that country into the United States. Data indicates that return flow to Mexico has only increased by 1%in the last year.

Other factors in the smaller number of undocumented immigrants include increased border enforcement, and to a lesser degree, increased ICE arrests in the interior.

The recession has not impacted on family-based legal immigration to the U.S., but it has had a substantial impact on some employment-based visa categories:

Yet the recession has tempered employer-driven demand for highly skilled temporary workers. In 2009, the annual cap of 65,000 H-1B visas for skilled foreign-born workers allowed was reached more than eight months after US Citizenship and Immigration Services first began accepting applications. In prior years, the cap had been met within the first few days or weeks of the filing-eligibility date.

MPI speculates on the impact of the decline on the legalization debate:

The growing evidence that illegal immigration has declined has prompted new speculation over the prospects for legislation granting legal status to unauthorized immigrants. Supporters of such legislation have argued that the decline in the flow of unauthorized immigrants, combined with the fact that few unauthorized immigrants in the United States are returning home, presents an opportune moment to legalize those already in the country without legal status.

Critics, however, argue that at a time of high unemployment rates, any legalization program would negatively affect employment prospects for native-born and authorized workers.

Tags : immigration reform, mpi, statistics, undocumented immigrants

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