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Number of Undocumented Immigrants in U.S. Continues To Drop

Posted September 2, 2010 by Patrick Young, Esq.
Categories: Federal Immigration Policy

A combination of a bad economy and tighter border enforcement in the first year of the Obama administration have led to a drop in the number of undocumented immigrants living in the United States says new research from the Pew Hispanic Center. The total number of undocumented in the U.S. fell by nearly a million between 2007 and 2009. Undocumented entries plunged even more dramatically, falling by nearly 50 percent from the first four years of the Bush administration to 2009.

According to the Wall Street Journal:

The Pew study found that the flow of Mexicans, who represent 60% of all illegal immigrants in the U.S., plummeted to 150,000 annually during the 2007-2009 period, compared with the annual average of 500,000 during the first half of the decade. “Not only do we see flows down; it’s a steady downward trend in the last four years,” said the lead study author, said Pew demographer Jeffrey Passel.Mr. Passel, who previously worked at the Census Bureau, said the methodology he developed for calculating the illegal immigrant population is now used by the Department of Homeland Security. He arrived at his estimates using data on the foreign-born population in the Census’s Current Population Survey and statistics from DHS on the number of legal immigrants admitted to the country.

The mortgage crisis and ensuing economic slump have slashed jobs in construction, tourism and other sectors that are the mainstay for low-skilled Latin Americans. Immigrants already in the U.S. are struggling, and word of their hardship is dissuading those back home from flocking to the U.S. “People don’t want to come now; they know the economy is bad,” said Braulio Gonzalez from Guatemala, who has been scraping by as a day laborer outside Los Angeles.

The decrease in the flow of illegal immigrants reported by Pew is supported by new studies from Wayne Cornelius, co-director of the migration research center at the University of California, San Diego. In 2009, the center found that potential migrants in Mexico were “two times less likely” to plan a move to the U.S. than in the pre-recession year of 2006. Among those already in the U.S., more than half said they had experienced a cut in work hours, according to the field research.

Ms. Napolitano noted earlier this week that Washington has dedicated unprecedented manpower and technology to combat illegal immigration. As a result, she said, the influx of undocumented immigrants was falling.
Mr. Cornelius and others experts say the business cycle, not tighter border security, has played the biggest role in the drop in illegal entrants.“The intensity of U.S. border enforcement has continued to increase during the recession, but only gradually,” said Mr. Cornelius. “What has changed drastically is the demand for Mexican labor in the U.S. economy.”

Mexicans currently pay about $3,000 to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, compared with $700 in the early 1990s. The cost for immigrants from Central and South America can top $10,000, which they usually pay in installments after getting jobs in the U.S.

“Because the return on their investment to gain access to the U.S. labor market now looks much less certain, many potential migrants are postponing journeys until the economy grows again,” said Mr. Cornelius.
Illegal immigrants represented 5% of the U.S. labor force last year, according to Pew. States where the housing market has been hardest hit saw the steepest decreases in their undocumented population.

Tags : census, statistics, undocumented immigrants

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